Greenpeace: Research report on the circular economy potential of new energy vehicle batteries by 2030

Over the past three decades, the global production of various metals has doubled. The production of lithium metal used in battery production in the 2010s reached five times that of the 1980s1. In addition to the surge in production, the types of metal materials used in modern technology products have also reached a historical peak. In the 1980s, only 12 metal elements were needed to produce a calculator, but now as many as 21 metals are needed to produce a smartphone2. The World Economic Forum calls on the world to recognize the challenges that the "produce-use-discard" linear production and consumption model brings to society as soon as possible. Developing a circular economy model to recycle resources and reduce the exploitation of primary resources is the inevitable development direction in the future.

New energy vehicles are one of the most representative products in the era of high resource intensity.

Since 2010, the electric vehicle wave has emerged around the world under the dual effects of investment promotion and policy incentives. Although many governments regard the promotion of electric vehicles as a policy direction to get rid of fossil energy and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, new energy vehicles are not a panacea without side effects. The production and processing of a large number of power batteries has become a new problem with increasing contradictions in terms of protecting the environment and alleviating resource pressure.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk once said that even if Tesla placed additional orders with all battery suppliers including Panasonic, LG Chem and CATL, it would still face a very serious battery supply shortage by 2022. The risk of battery supply mainly lies in the limited resources of raw materials (mainly lithium, cobalt, manganese and nickel) required for battery production, especially cobalt, which has been in short supply in recent years. With the rapid development of the global new energy vehicle industry, the supply of key resources in power batteries will be a must-answer question for all automobile manufacturers.

According to the latest report "Sustaining Resources - Research Report on the Circular Economy Potential of New Energy Vehicle Batteries in 2030" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report") released by international environmental organizations Greenpeace and the All-China Environmental Protection Federation on October 29, 2020, the research team pointed out that in 2030, more than 2.1TWh (terawatt hours) of power batteries will be sold with passenger electric vehicles worldwide. A full charge of these batteries can meet Singapore's electricity demand for half a month. During the same period, China will have more than 1.1 TWh of power batteries sold with new energy vehicles. By then, the world and China will also face the first wave of large-scale retirement of power batteries.

The research team calculated that the total amount of retired power batteries for passenger electric vehicles will reach 12.85 million tons between 2021 and 2030, equivalent to the total weight of 1,285 Eiffel Towers. During the same period, the total amount of retired power batteries for new energy vehicles in China will reach 7.05 million tons, equivalent to the weight of 168 steel structures of the Bird's Nest Stadium. Retired power batteries can be both a rich energy carrier and a heavy environmental burden, which will depend on what kind of treatment strategy we adopt.

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