Counterpoint: Cellular IoT module shipments to grow 10% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2024

According to Counterpoint’s latest Global Cellular IoT Module and Chipset Tracker, global cellular IoT module shipments will grow 10% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2024, with the market recovering from the downturn in 2023. This recovery is mainly driven by strong demand in China and India, highlighting the resilience and changing dynamics of the IoT ecosystem.

Key market dynamics:

Quectel continues to lead the market, followed by China Mobile and Fibocom. These three companies will account for more than half of the global market in 2024. In markets outside of China, Telit Cinterion maintains its second position.

Despite the overall market recovery, leading IoT module suppliers face increasing geopolitical challenges. Quectel and Fibocom, two of China’s largest IoT module suppliers, may face more restrictions in international markets. Notably, Quectel’s inclusion on the US 1260H list further complicates its ability to operate in Western markets. These developments have raised concerns among global IoT adopters about supply chain stability and supplier diversification strategies.

In 2024, the competitive landscape of the cellular IoT module industry has undergone significant changes. The trend of consolidation has intensified, and major industry players have made strategic acquisitions and reorganized their business portfolios. Qualcomm's acquisition of Sequans' 4G technology highlights the importance of LTE solutions in the IoT market. At the same time, u-blox's complete exit from the cellular module field highlights the challenges for mid-sized companies to maintain profitability amid price pressures and changes in technology requirements.

Commercial deployment of 5G RedCap has begun in China and North America. Several chipset vendors, including Qualcomm, MLink, UNISOC, MediaTek, and HiSilicon, have launched 5G RedCap chipsets, marking a shift to next-generation connectivity solutions. The adoption rate of 5G RedCap will largely depend on the strategies of mobile network operators (MNOs), including the transition from 4G to 5G and the penetration of standalone (SA) 5G networks, as well as device cost considerations. Key applications for 5G RedCap include MiFi devices, routers, and surveillance cameras, further consolidating its expanded role in the evolving connectivity ecosystem.