iPhone 12's 5G will launch with two technologies, the latter of which may not be popular

According to the latest news, Apple's upcoming iPhone 12 models will all support 5G, and rumors indicate that the new iPhone series launched this fall will support sub-6GHz and mmWave networks, which are two different 5G technologies that operators are launching.

The fastest technology, mmWave, will be used in densely populated areas such as large cities. Longer-range sub-6GHz networks will be more widely available in urban, suburban and rural areas. However, shipments of 5G iPhones with mmWave capabilities may be weaker than expected this year and next due to the impact of the global health crisis.

In a new investor analysis from TFI Securities, Apple's mmWave-based 5G iPhone shipments are estimated to be several million units lower than expected due to delays in the rollout of mWave base stations around the world.

The following is the financial report:

We believe that global 5G mmWave base station installations are lower than expected due to the impact of the [health crisis]. As a result, we estimate that mmWave iPhone shipments in 2020 and 2021 will be approximately 4-6 million and 25-35 million, respectively, lower than the market consensus of 15-20 million and 40-50 million.

And this year, due to production challenges and the impact of the health crisis, mmWave 5G iPhone shipments may be much weaker than expected this year.

However, shipments of the mmWave-enabled 5G iPhone, expected to be launched this year, are estimated to reach 20 million units in 2020, compared to previous supply chain estimates of 30-40 million units.

Before the global health crisis, Apple was still on track to release both sub-6GHz and sub-6GHz mmWave ‌iPhone 12‌ models in the second half of 2020, with shipments starting in late Q3 or early Q4. But some analysts believe the models supporting ultra-fast mmWave technology may launch after the sub-6GHz models, staggering the release of 6GHz 5G technology.

This year's iPhone 12 series will come in four sizes: 5.4 inches, 6.1 inches, and 6.7 inches. The two low-end 5.4 and 6.1-inch devices are expected to ship before the Pro devices, but it is unclear whether the phased release has anything to do with different models supporting different 5G technologies.

Apple employees also revealed that some testers found 5G disappointing because the current 5G network "did not greatly improve the connection speed" because when connecting to 5G, it has a cold start process, which causes the network speed to not quickly reach the original usage rate. Currently, R&D personnel are working to solve this fatal problem.

The iPhone models that support both mmWave and sub-6GHz will be available in major markets such as China, the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia, Canada, and Japan, while in some other countries, Apple may offer iPhone products with only sub-6GHz frequencies. In countries where 5G is not available or 5G penetration is low, sub-6GHz bands may also be disabled, leaving them with only 4G networks.