Will an asteroid hit the Earth in 2032? The United Nations launches the Planetary Safety Protocol for the first time

According to a report on the website of El Spaniard on February 4, an asteroid named 2024 YR4 is expected to pose a risk of collision with the Earth within seven years. The United Nations has launched the Planetary Safety Protocol for the first time to deal with this threat.

The impact corridor predicted by the National Space Science Center of the Chinese Academy of Sciences based on observation data on February 7

What is the origin of the asteroid 2024 YR4?

Image of asteroid 2024 YR4 provided by NASA

First sighting : On December 27, 2024, it was first reported by the University of Hawaii's Asteroid Last Alert System (ATLAS) station in Chile.

Diameter : Probably 40-90 meters

Impact probability : On February 7, 2025, the probability of the asteroid hitting the Earth has increased from 1.6% announced on February 5 to 2.3%, and is still changing dynamically.

Estimated approach to Earth : December 22, 2032 TIPS

What if the 2024 YR4 asteroid hits Earth?

According to scientists' calculations, the airburst power of the 2024 YR4 asteroid hitting the Earth is equivalent to about 8 megatons of TNT , which may cause regional disasters and cause huge damage, but it is far from causing extinction. There have also been famous celestial body impact events in history:

Tunguska Event

Date: June 30, 1908

Location: Tunguska region, Siberia, Russia

Impactor: Asteroid or comet fragment 50-70 meters in diameter

Impact: The blast had an energy equivalent to 10-15 million tons of TNT and destroyed about 2,000 square kilometers of forest.

Chelyabinsk incident

Date: February 15, 2013

Location: Chelyabinsk Oblast, Russia

Impactor: Asteroid about 20 meters in diameter

Impact: The blast had an energy equivalent to 400,000 to 500,000 tons of TNT, injuring more than 1,500 people, mainly from broken glass.

Image credit: Alex Alishevskikh/wikipedia

What can humans do?

1. Continuous tracking and observation

The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) unites observatories and observation agencies around the world to use ground-based and space telescopes to continuously monitor near-Earth objects and detect potential threats in a timely manner. As a formal member of the IAWN, China organized multiple domestic telescopes to conduct joint observations and share observation data during the asteroid impact events in September and December 2024, contributing Chinese strength to the global response. With the increase in observation data and the improvement of monitoring technology, scientists can more accurately assess the orbits and impact risks of asteroids, and most asteroid warnings will eventually be lifted as more data is accumulated .

For example, the 2023 DZ2 asteroid was briefly marked as "1/430 ​​probability of hitting the Earth on March 27, 2026" in the early days of its discovery, but as more observation data accumulated, this probability was reduced to zero.

2. Change the orbit of asteroids

Humans have been exploring ways to defend against near-Earth objects. The scientific methods currently proposed include: launching a probe to fly closely with the target asteroid and use gravity to drag it off its orbit; or intercepting it with a nuclear explosion and using a precisely calculated nuclear explosion shock wave to push the asteroid away, etc.

eg. In 2022, NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) successfully deflected the orbit of the asteroid Dimorphos by crashing an extremely fast probe into the asteroid.

Schematic diagram of the DART probe's impact with the asteroid Dimorphos. Source: NASA/Johns Hopkins APL

It is precisely because of the continuous advancement of astronomical observation technology that human beings’ monitoring and early warning capabilities of near-Earth objects have gradually increased, making it possible to detect and assess potential impact threats in advance, and further promoting the formulation and implementation of long-term interstellar defense plans.

Author & Editor: rain

Thanks to: Li Yide from Shanghai Institute of Aerospace Systems Engineering; Shui Xiong from Shanghai Astronomical Museum

References: El Spaniard, Xinhua Daily Telegraph, Institute of High Energy Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Planetary Science, etc.