China Automobile Dealers Association: The auto dealer inventory warning index was 60.5% in November 2020

On November 30, 2020, the latest issue of the "China Automobile Dealer Inventory Alert Index Survey" VIA (Vehicle Inventory Alert Index) released by the China Automobile Dealers Association showed that the automobile dealer inventory alert index in November 2020 was 60.5%, an increase of 6.4 percentage points from the previous month and a decrease of 2.0 percentage points from the same period last year. The inventory alert index is above the boom-bust line.

In November, the macro-economy continued to pick up. Driven by the Double 11 Shopping Festival, the International Auto Show, and new energy vehicles going to the countryside, the demand in the auto market was stable and improving. As the weather turned cold and the epidemic recurred in some areas, consumers went to stores to buy fewer cars, and the market in some areas was under short-term pressure. Hainan, Xinjiang, Kunming and other places introduced policies to stimulate auto consumption, which also accelerated the market recovery.

As the year draws to a close and we need to replenish inventory and meet sales targets, new cars are launched and various promotional activities are taking place, dealers’ profitability is insufficient and new car prices are inverted.

Judging from the sub-indices : the inventory index increased month-on-month in November, while the market demand index, average daily sales index, employee index and operating conditions index decreased month-on-month.

Looking at the regional indexes : the national total index was 60.5% in November, the northern region index was 59.9%, the eastern region index was 60.2%, the western region index was 64.7%, and the southern region index was 58.3%.

From the perspective of brand type index : in November, the import & luxury brand index decreased month-on-month, while the mainstream joint venture brand and domestic brand index increased month-on-month. The luxury brand market performed strongly, and some models were in short supply; the joint venture and domestic brands increased compared with the previous month in order to replenish inventory at the end of the year.

In December, most policies to promote automobile sales will expire, which will also give a certain boost to the auto market in December. In addition, the end-of-year sales and marketing activities will also promote auto sales. It is expected that sales in December will increase month-on-month, but will decrease year-on-year. The national and local governments have proposed a new round of consumption promotion policies such as expanding automobile consumption and encouraging automobile scrapping and renewal in rural areas. It will take some time to implement and release, and the automobile market will gradually boost in the future.

The China Automobile Dealers Association recommends that in the post-epidemic period, dealers should rationally estimate actual market demand based on actual conditions, reasonably control inventory levels, improve network profitability, strengthen channel risk management, do a good job in fund management, control costs and expenses, and reduce operating risks. At the same time, do not relax epidemic prevention and control measures and continue to implement epidemic prevention and control measures.