Counterpoint: Global Cellular IoT Module Shipments to Exceed 1.2 Billion by 2030

By 2030 , global cellular IoT module shipments will exceed 1.2 billion

• By 2028 , 5G shipments will exceed 4G and become the leading technology in the global cellular IoT module market.
• Smart metering, industrial, router /CPE , automotive and POS will be the top five applications in terms of shipments in 2030 .
• Large-scale application of the 5G RedCap standard is expected to occur in 2027 and beyond.

According to Counterpoint Research 's latest forecast for global cellular IoT modules: By 2030 , global cellular IoT module shipments will exceed 1.2 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of 12% . The growth in shipments will be mainly driven by 5G , NB-IoT and 4G Cat 1 bis technologies. 5G will be the fastest growing technology ( 60% ) during 2022-2030 , followed by 4G Cat 1 bis .

As 5G technology matures, we will see large module suppliers such as Quectel , Fibocom , MeiG , Foxconn , Thales , Telit and Sierra Wireless continue to consolidate their position in the global cellular IoT module market. Long-tail module suppliers will still be constrained by product scale and partnerships.

Commenting on the market dynamics, Soumen Mandal, Senior Research Analyst, said: “ With the continued decline in 2G and 3G network applications around the world, most of the market demand has so far shifted to LPWA , 4G Cat 1 and 4G Cat 1 bis technologies. NB-IoT technology will continue to be popular in parts of Asia (including China) and Europe, while demand for modules based on 4G Cat-1 technology will surge in the next few years.

The global cellular IoT market will transition from 4G to 5G in the rest of this decade as LPWA technologies such as NB-IoT , LTE-M , and 4G Cat-1 drive initial adoption of cellular IoT. This transition will be faster than the transition from 2G/3G to LPWA/4G in the IoT space . By then, 5G will become the leading technology in the global cellular IoT module market, followed by NB-IoT and 4G Cat 1 bis .

The launch of 5G and the introduction of 5G RedCap in the next few years will enable 5G to be widely used in smart IoT applications such as industry, asset tracking, POS , telematics, healthcare and wearable devices to replace traditional 4G IoT applications. We expect the cumulative shipments of 5G (excluding 5G RedCap ) to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 60% to reach 2.5 billion units between 2022 and 2030 .

Towards the end of this decade, we should see the introduction of 6G technology for IoT. However, in the first few years, 6G adoption will be limited to high-end applications such as enterprise and broadband.

Commenting on the cellular IoT module application areas, Neil Shah, Vice President of Research, said: “ Smart metering, industrial, router /CPE , automotive and POS will be the top five applications in terms of shipments in 2030. 5G will be the preferred choice for Industry 4.0 (such as robotics, automation and digital twins), router /CPE (such as FWA and private networks) and automotive (such as interconnected and autonomous driving) applications, LPWA (low power wide area network) will be the preferred technology for utilities (smart metering), 4G Cat 1 bis and 5G RedCap will be used for POS applications.

China leads the 5G adoption rate in the global cellular IoT module market . However, North America and Europe will have great potential in the future. 5G adoption in emerging markets such as India and Latin America will also grow faster, and 5G RedCap may become popular in these regions.