TrendForce: DRAM average price decline is expected to narrow to 13-18% in Q1 2023

According to a recent report released by TrendForce, memory sellers continue to face inventory pressure due to weak consumer demand, and only Samsung's inventory has slightly decreased under its bidding strategy.

In order to avoid further sharp price drops of DRAM products, many suppliers such as Micron have begun to actively reduce production. It is estimated that the decline in DRAM prices in the first quarter of 2023 may converge to 13~18% , but there is still no end to the downward cycle.

▲ Image source: TrendForce

The report said that in terms of PC DRAM, due to insufficient demand in the notebook market, PC OEMs have reduced PC DRAM purchases for two consecutive quarters. Currently, PC DRAM inventory is about 9 to 13 weeks, but the first quarter is traditionally a low season, and inventory clearance is still difficult. It is estimated that DDR5 prices will fall by about 18 to 23%, DDR4 by about 15 to 20%, and overall PC DRAM prices will fall by about 15 to 20% in the first quarter .

As for Server DRAM, server demand has declined due to the off-season effect, adjustments to long and short material supply, and the overall economic weakness. Even though some suppliers have begun to reduce production, they have not been able to effectively contain the price decline. It is estimated that the price of DDR5 will drop by about 18~23% in the first quarter, slightly higher than DDR4. However, the introduction rate of DDR5 in the first quarter was only about 10%, so the decline in Server DRAM prices is mainly determined by DDR4, with an estimated decline of about 15~20% .

In terms of Mobile DRAM, the Mobile DRAM inventory of smartphone brands has been depleted for about six quarters and has reached a relatively healthy level of 5 to 7 weeks on average. However, the sales market is sluggish and various smartphone brands continue to lower their full-year sales targets for 2023, which makes it difficult to deplete the Mobile DRAM inventory. Suppliers plan to slow down the decline in quotations, mainly because production cuts have been established and will continue to expand. Furthermore, compared with other DRAM product categories, Mobile DRAM has the lowest profit. When sluggish demand is already a market consensus, the strategic effect of price cuts to grab the market is low, so the quarterly decline in Mobile DRAM prices in the first quarter will converge to 10~15% .

In terms of Graphics DRAM, graphics cards and related laptops equipped with new GPUs will be shipped one after another, but the weak consumer terminals, coupled with the previous lengthy inventory liquidation process, have caused the procurement side to remain conservative in its strategy of pulling in Graphics DRAM. Since demand in the fourth quarter of 2022 did not catch up with the increase in supply, the original Graphics DRAM inventory continued to pile up. In addition, in 2023, the mainstream demand will shift significantly from GDDR6 8Gb to GDDR6 16Gb. With limited demand, it is estimated that the price drop of GDDR6 8Gb will fluctuate greatly. The overall Graphics DRAM price fell by about 18~23% in the first quarter, but if price-cutting competition continues, the decline may deepen .

In terms of consumer DRAM, considering that terminal buying sentiment is still sluggish and consumer DRAM prices are still in a downward cycle, buyers have not started to actively stock up, and the relatively stable network communication orders have gradually loosened in the first quarter of 2023, resulting in a decline in overall consumer DRAM shipments. Even though Micron has started to reduce production since November 2022, the original factory inventory level has repeatedly hit new highs. In addition to requiring a longer time to clear, it must also rely on a larger scale of production cuts. As the overall consumer DRAM market is still in oversupply, it is estimated that prices will fall by 18~23% in the first quarter of 2023 .

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